🇿🇦 Mzansi Market Memo — Friday, 18 July 2025

Molweni gents and gentleladies.

We have an issue. We’ve plateaued. After a solid week of growth, our community is stagnant and I need you to help me change that. I started this newsletter because I believe that every day South Africans should have an easy to understand breakdown of the markets so that we can remove barriers to access to building wealth. That’s why I’ll never put a paywall in front of your daily update.

This newsletter is for the people.

So what can you do? Help spread the message by doing one or all of the following:

• Share this email and invite 5 friends to subscribe - there’s even a nifty referral feature at the bottom

• Give us a follow on LinkedIn and share the page or a post with why you enjoy reading the Memo

• Subscribe to the WhatsApp channel and give us a share to your story

Have some advice or want to help in other ways? Simply reply to this email and I’ll respond personally.

Let’s get to the money.

⚡ Before the Bell

• 🌍 Global & Local Market Recap

  • JSE All Share Index: Up 0.30% to 97 353 - the JSE really enjoys teasing us with 100 000

  • USD/ZAR Exchange Rate: R17.84 - steady she goes

• Stats SA today: nothing for today but that’s ok after all the releases yesterday. Find a summary of the announcements in a special StatsSA section below

• Earnings today: CAPITEC AGM; SEAM next final results

💫 StatsSA Special Roundup - Civil courts, construction, cars & commerce

Four announcements in one day… because why not? Thanks StatsSA for keeping this newsletter chonky

1. Civil Cases for Debt (May 2025)
⚖️ Debt stress shows signs of easing
Civil summonses fell 17.1% YoY, with civil judgments down nearly 20% and the total value of debt judgments declining by 8%.
TLDR: Encouraging signs for household and business solvency — legal debt actions are pulling back across the board.
Read more: StatsSA

2. Building Statistics (Jan–May 2025)
🏗️ Slowdown in planning, but more completions
The value of building plans passed dipped 0.8%, with declines in both residential and commercial sectors. However, completed buildings rose 3.1%.
TLDR: Developers are finishing what they’ve started, but cautious on new builds. Market looks hesitant, not broken.
Read more: StatsSA

3. Motor Trade Sales (May 2025)
🚗 Used cars, fuel and accessories drive the gains
Motor trade sales rose 4.7% YoY in real terms, with used vehicles (+9.6%) and accessories (+6.6%) leading the pack. Workshop income slumped 15.3%. On a quarterly basis, growth hit 2.8%.
TLDR: SA motorists are still buying — especially second-hand. Maintenance spend is lagging, but demand is cruising.
Read more: StatsSA

4. Wholesale Trade Sales (May 2025)
📦 Wholesale sector hits the brakes hard
Sales dropped 4.3% YoY in real terms and 6.3% in nominal terms. Fuel dealers were the biggest drag, with sales down over 21%.
TLDR: A broad-based pullback — especially in energy and machinery — signals strain in SA’s commercial supply chain.
Read more: StatsSA

📣 SENS Roundup

1. AECI (AFE) Major portfolio reshuffle
   Disposals in the US, Germany, and SA to focus on core Mining and Chemicals operations.
   TLDR: Bold capital reallocation for leaner, focused growth.

2. Naspers (NPN) & Prosus (PRX)Tencent trim, buybacks continue
   Tencent stake dips to 22.996%, no impact on the ongoing repurchase plan.
   TLDR: Buyback engine still running — no change to capital return strategy.

3. Trencor (TRE) Final dividend and delisting
   90c special dividend confirmed before delisting and liquidation on 5 Aug.
   TLDR: Wind-down nearly complete. One last payout before lights out.

4. Glencore (GLN) Buyback via UBS gets green light
   Tax-optimised structure for repurchases approved.
   TLDR: Slightly bullish — may put a floor under the share price.

5. Valterra Platinum (VAL) Board strengthened ahead of LSE listing
   Two new independents bring depth and governance credibility.
   TLDR: Shoring up the boardroom before global investor exposure.

6. Routine updates:

   1. Director trades: Richemont, Vunani, Spear REIT, Ninety One

   2. Fund/ETF listings or redemptions: STXSWX, PMXINC, 27FGMF

   3. Governance/AGM: Exemplar REITail, Anglo American, Mobile Telecommunications

   4. Institutional stake changes: AECI (PIC)

   5. Note issuances & bondholder actions: NBKP, CDII01

   6. Dividend logistics: Datatec

   7. Buybacks: Hammerson, BAT

   8. Convertible bond update: Primary Health Properties

   9. Financial reporting: Investec

🧠 Exec Pick - a Friday deep dive

To cap off the week, we’re doing a deeper dive as an exec pick. Still shorter than the upcoming Sunday Special Edition, but with a bit more meat than your daily exec picks format. Don’t worry there’s still a TLDR at the end.

📉 Global markets rally but earnings outlook lowers — a divergence worth watching
The U.S. earnings season has kicked off, with Wall Street giants like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs leading the charge — followed closely by global tech titans Netflix, TSMC, and ASML. And while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have surged 26% and 34% respectively since April, the fundamentals are starting to look a bit out of sync.

Earnings estimates for Q2 have dropped in 13 of 16 sectors. The deepest cuts are in cyclicals: autos, transport, energy, and materials. Even the mighty Nvidia, now worth over $4 trillion, enters this season with a valuation narrative built more on momentum than forecast upgrades.

Tariffs are biting too — 60% of surveyed U.S. firms reported falling margins, with a quarter citing more than 6–10% drops. IPO and M&A pipelines are weak (IPO volumes are down 40% YoY), and while trading desks may pick up the slack, early signs from Amazon’s Prime Day show retail spending cooling sharply.

One silver lining? A weaker dollar. U.S. companies earn over 40% of their revenue abroad, and history shows multinational-heavy sectors like tech tend to outperform when the dollar dips.

TLDR: Global equity markets may be climbing, but earnings are struggling to keep up. Investors are betting on future resilience — but the next earnings seasons will test whether reality supports the rally.

🧾 Glossary: Market Moves Explained

When the jargon hits harder than a load shedding schedule, we’ve got you. Here’s your quick decode of today’s financial buzzwords.

• Debt stress – When individuals, companies, or even governments are struggling to meet their debt obligations. Think court summonses, rising arrears, or increased borrowing to stay afloat.

• Nominal terms – Financial figures that haven’t been adjusted for inflation. They're the raw numbers you see, but not always the full story.

• Disposals – A corporate term for selling off business units, properties, or assets. Often part of a restructuring or focus strategy.

• Capital reallocation – When a company shifts where its money is being invested — selling off non-core areas and doubling down where it sees growth or strategic value.

😂 Meme of the Day

🧾 Final Word

Things are starting to take shape - both with the markets and the Memo.

Global markets and the JSE seem to be steady despite the noise and I think it will remain that way till we approach Q3 earnings. USD ZAR might improve if earnings take a dip but in the longterm I’d say a USD strengthening is coming. I hope we’ve sorted out our domestic issues before then…

The Memo, has transformed quite a bit over the last two weeks (shoutout new edition styles and their logos). This has been driven by feedback from you!

I'm really happy with how it's coming along especially now that we've segmented into:
The Monday Outlook
Tues-Thurs Daily
The Friday Edition
Sunday Special Edition - soon to be published
Each of these aims to address different parts of your feedback. So tell me how it's going, which is your favourite edition? What's your favourite of the newsletter? Do you care about the routine updates in the SENS section or only want to know the key hitters?

We're on this journey together so hit reply and let's get the conversation going.

P.S. this was one of the longest Memos I’ve written. Like it or hate it? Let me know!

—

Mzansi Market Memo is compiled daily by Rayhaan @ the Memo for investors and operators who trade before the sun rises. *This memo is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Still, we’d buy low and read high.

Join the movement → Subscribe or share