🇿🇦 Mzansi Market Memo — Friday, 25 July 2025

Molweni gents and gentleladies.

After a triumphant break above 100,000 earlier this week, the JSE All Share dipped back below the milestone on Thursday — just a day later. The question on every trader’s screen this morning: was that a breakout or just a fakeout?

We’ve got data coming in hot, major corporate shifts underway, and a Steinhoff scandal that refuses to disappear quietly.

Let’s get to the money.

⚡ Before the Bell

• 🌍 Global & Local Market Recap

  • JSE All Share Index: down 0.21% to 99,971 - rally for end of week?

  • USD/ZAR Exchange Rate: R17.63 dropping slightly on US activity

• Stats SA today: nothing for today

• Earnings today: 

  • AGMS: Renergen; Karoo; Goldrush; Raubex; Fambrands

  • Interim results: Anglo American; British American Tobacco (BATS)

📣 SENS Roundup

1. Adcorp delisting plans finalised
   Adcorp Holdings will be delisted from the JSE effective 30 July 2025, following the implementation of its scheme of arrangement. This marks the formal conclusion of its go-private transaction.

2. Reinet completes Pension Insurance Corp disposal
   Reinet has wrapped up the sale of its entire stake in the Pension Insurance Corporation Group to Athora, generating over €200 million in dividends this quarter alone. A significant shift in its portfolio strategy.

3. MAS shareholders briefed on Hyprop offer
   MAS Real Estate published a circular outlining the details of Hyprop’s conditional voluntary offer. The offer consists of a mix of R24/share in cash and Hyprop shares. MAS’s board remains cautious, highlighting timing and regulatory concerns.

4. PSG Financial Services board appointments confirmed
   New non-executive directors have been appointed to PSG Financial Services, including former Capitec executive Carl Roothman. The appointments were ratified at the company’s AGM.

5. UBS expands local exposure with new certificate issue
   UBS AG has been granted JSE approval for a second tranche (10 million units) of its Actively Managed Certificate linked to the STANLIB Strategy 4 Portfolio. The instrument remains classified as domestic under SARB regulations.

6. Bannerman Energy to host quarterly update webinar
   Namibian uranium player Bannerman Energy will release its June quarter results on 29 July 2025, accompanied by a shareholder webinar. Expect updates on their Etango project and market outlook.

🧠 Exec Pick - a Friday deep dive

To cap off the week, we’re doing a deeper dive as an exec pick. Still shorter than the upcoming Sunday Special Edition, but with a bit more meat than your daily exec picks format. Don’t worry there’s still a TLDR at the end.

📉 Steinhoff's R6.3bn Forfeit – Justice or Just a Deal?

The story of Steinhoff is no longer just a corporate scandal — it’s a cautionary tale that shook South Africa’s financial system to its core.

Where it all began
Once the darling of the JSE, Steinhoff International grew rapidly by acquiring retail brands across Europe, the US, and Africa. But in 2017, the house of cards collapsed after Deloitte refused to sign off on its financials, citing “accounting irregularities.” What followed was a catastrophic 97% loss in market cap and over R155 billion in debt — triggering panic among local and global investors.

Fast forward to now
This week, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) confirmed a final settlement with Ibex Group (the renamed remnants of Steinhoff). The deal ends seven years of litigation over Exchange Control breaches — and it sees Ibex forfeit a whopping R6.3 billion to the state.

SARB framed the settlement as “reasonable, proportionate and justifiable” — one that preserves regulatory certainty, boosts confidence, and allows Ibex to complete its winding-down process abroad. The funds had already been frozen; the agreement simply halts Ibex’s attempts to claw them back.

What does this mean for markets?
While the final settlement brings legal closure, it opens up a broader question — has justice been served? Let’s tally the score:

• Steinhoff was found to have moved €6.5 billion (R134bn) in dubious transactions through its books between 2009 and 2017.

• The financial collapse triggered massive losses for institutional investors, including the Public Investment Corporation (PIC) and domestic banks.

• SARB-led restructuring helped avoid fire sales and preserved jobs, but the reputational damage was already done.

From 2018–2023, Steinhoff repaid over R28 billion to local banks and paid R18.5 billion to investors. Still, those repayments pale in comparison to the scale of manipulation uncovered by forensic auditors at PwC.

Opinion: Is R6.3 billion enough?
On paper, this is a win for SARB. But from a public trust perspective, many will argue that the forfeited sum — just a slice of the R134 billion implicated — is far too lenient. The long-term costs to confidence, pension funds, and market integrity run deeper than any settlement can reflect.

The lack of major prosecutions or executive accountability also leaves a bitter taste. For retail investors and pensioners caught in the collapse, the scandal remains unresolved emotionally and financially.

Looking ahead
This settlement may signal the end of Steinhoff’s legal chapter, but it should be the beginning of South Africa doubling down on corporate governance, forensic oversight, and stronger whistleblower protections. In a global economy where perception drives capital flows, market trust is non-negotiable.

TLDR: Steinhoff has agreed to forfeit R6.3bn in a final deal with the SARB over exchange control violations. While the settlement ends a 7-year battle, critics argue it falls short of reflecting the damage caused by one of the biggest corporate frauds in South African history. The financial markets are moving on — but the scars run deep.

Read more: IOL

🧾 Glossary: Market Moves Explained

When the jargon hits harder than a load shedding schedule, we’ve got you. Here’s your quick decode of today’s financial buzzwords.

• Scheme of arrangement – A court-approved agreement between a company and its shareholders or creditors, often used in takeovers or delistings. In Adcorp’s case, it paved the way for its JSE exit.

• Circular (to shareholders) – A formal document sent to shareholders with details of corporate actions, such as a takeover or merger. MAS issued one to outline the Hyprop offer’s terms and conditions.

• Actively Managed Certificate (AMC) – A listed investment product that allows issuers like UBS to track a specific strategy actively managed by an investment team, rather than passively mirroring an index.

• Domestic classification (under SARB regulations) – A designation that determines how an investment is treated for exchange control purposes. Even foreign-issued products like UBS’s certificate can be considered domestic under certain conditions, limiting their forex impact.

• Exchange Control breaches – Violations of national laws regulating cross-border financial transactions. Steinhoff’s R6.3bn forfeiture relates directly to these breaches.

• Forensic audit – A deep-dive investigation into financial records, often used to uncover fraud or accounting manipulation. PwC’s forensic audit was pivotal in exposing Steinhoff’s €6.5bn in irregularities.

• Winding-down process – The final administrative and legal steps a company takes to cease operations or exit a jurisdiction. Ibex Group (formerly Steinhoff) is undergoing this internationally.

😂 Meme of the Day

🧾 Final Word

The JSE’s brief flirtation with 100,000 reminds us how fragile momentum can be. While CPI relief and tourism growth provided a lift, global uncertainty, earnings season jitters, and unresolved market scars like Steinhoff continue to cast long shadows.

Whether we close above or below 100,000 today matters less than the broader message: confidence is a currency of its own.

As always — trade smart, lead sharp, and we’ll see you Sunday for the deep dive.

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Mzansi Market Memo is compiled daily by Rayhaan @ the Memo for investors and operators who trade before the sun rises. *This memo is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Still, we’d buy low and read high.

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