🇿🇦 Mzansi Market Memo — Friday, 8 August 2025

Good morning,

Today we cover manufacturing and electricity updates from StatsSA, and take a deep dive on trading logistics. JSE is up, ZAR is enjoying the volatility and AI education is the future for Kenya.

Let’s get to the money.

⚡ Before the Bell

• 🌍 Global & Local Market Recap

  • JSE All Share Index: up 0.49% to 100,643

  • USD/ZAR Exchange Rate: R17.80

• Stats SA today: quiet

• Earnings today: 

  • AGMs: Collins

  • Results: Astoria (Interim); South Ocean Holdings (Interim)

📣 SENS Roundup

1. Montauk Renewables (MKR)
   For the six months to June, revenue grew 7% to $87.7m, but EBITDA dropped 27% to $11.4m. The company swung to a headline loss of $4m (from a $1.6m profit) due to impairments, resulting in a loss per share of $0.04.

2. ADvTECH (ADH)
   ADvTECH is expanding its Makini Schools brand in Kenya with the R172m acquisition of Regis Runda Academy, a 2,000-student K–12 campus in Nairobi. The school will be rebranded and upgraded with AI-powered learning tools and enhanced sports facilities, reinforcing ADvTECH’s pan-African private education push.

3. Metair Investments (MTA)
   H1 revenue is expected to surge 52–54% to over R8.6bn, driven by the inclusion of Hesto and AutoZone. EBIT is set to rise 24–30%, though margins remain compressed at 5.1–5.3% due to AutoZone losses during its recovery phase. HEPS from continuing ops is forecast between 69–72c, down slightly, while total EPS will reflect a once-off R300m loss from Hesto’s consolidation.

StatsSA roundup

Manufacturing: Utilisation of Production Capacity (May 2025)

• Large manufacturers operated at 77.7% capacity in May 2025, marginally higher (+0.1pp) than May 2024.

• Under-utilisation edged down to 22.3%, with shortages of raw materials easing (-0.5pp) but insufficient demand rising (+0.4pp).

• Strongest gains in utilisation:

  • Glass & non-metallic mineral products (+2.5pp)

  • Textiles, clothing, leather & footwear (+1.8pp)

• Biggest declines:

  • Wood, paper, publishing & printing (-1.9pp)

  • Motor vehicles & transport equipment (-1.0pp)

• Divisions above 80% utilisation: Food & beverages (82.6%), Glass & non-metallic minerals (81.0%), Furniture & other manufacturing (80.2%).

• Read more: StatsSA

Electricity: Generation & Distribution (June 2025)

• Generation: Down 1.3% y/y, and -1.4% m/m (seasonally adjusted). Q2 2025 was still +0.4% vs Q1.

• Distribution: Fell 3.8% y/y and -2.4% m/m (seasonally adjusted).

• Year-to-date (Jan–Jun 2025):

  • Total generation +1.3% vs 2024, but domestic distribution -1.9%.

  • Imports plunged -35.4%, while exports rose +27.4%.

• Provincial trends (y/y): Gains in Western Cape (+4.5%), Northern Cape (+3.8%), Eastern Cape (+2.1%), but sharp drops in North West (-18.0%) and Limpopo (-15.2%).

• Read more: StatsSA

🧠 The Friday Exec Pick

Shorter than the Sunday Special Edition, but meatier than your daily. Don’t worry there’s still a TLDR at the end.

Trade arteries squeezed: Maersk cuts SA–US direct line

Earlier this week we highlighted Business Report’s article on Maersk shutting its direct trade route. Interest was high, so here’s a deeper dive.

What happened: Maersk is scrapping its only direct shipping service from South Africa to the United States from October. That leaves just one direct option (MSC), and concentrates pricing power on a critical lane.

Why it matters: With one of two arteries shut, exporters will be forced to route via Europe’s congested ports - adding time, cost, and uncertainty. That’s brutal for sectors where timing is everything: fruit, wine, seafood, and auto components. And it lands just as US trade barriers rise - a double blow to margins and reliability.

Knock-ons to watch:

• Working capital creep: longer days-at-sea = higher financing costs somewhere in the chain.

• Concentration risk: if MSC hiccups, there’s no back-up — pricing and schedule risk spike.

• Tariff overlay: US measures are already raising landed costs and denting SA competitiveness; autos are especially exposed.

My take:

This isn’t just a route reshuffle - it exposes a strategic vulnerability in our global logistics. Unless we move fast on alternatives (redundant routes, BRICS/intra-Africa corridors, and a coordinated national logistics strategy), we risk getting marginalised on key trade lanes.

On a broader level, we’ve just lost even more leverage with the US when we didn’t have much anyway. This is the perfect storm for President Trump’s politics to hit South Africa, hard. We need to go back to the drawing board and assess how we can leverage our control of strategic metals and minerals while doing damage control on the diplomatic level.

The U.S. is still a key market, but the combo of tariffs + logistics will push SA corporates to revaluate export strategies (EU, Middle East, intra-Africa, BRICS), reducing U.S. exposure over time - a drift rather than a snap. Politics is shortsighted, while trade is forever and many may choose to wait and see. Either way, not good for the SA economy.

TLDR: One less ship, a lot more friction — and the timing could not be worse for SA.

🧾 Glossary: Market Moves Explained

When the jargon hits harder than a load shedding schedule, we’ve got you. Here’s your quick decode of today’s financial buzzwords.

• EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation & Amortisation): A profitability measure showing a company’s operating performance before non-cash charges and financing costs.

• Pan-African Strategy: A business approach focused on expanding operations across multiple African countries rather than staying domestic.

• Capacity Utilisation: The percentage of a manufacturer’s potential output that’s actually being produced - a key gauge of industrial health.

• Working Capital Creep: When slower trade or longer payment cycles lock up more cash in operations, raising financing costs.

• Concentration Risk: The danger of relying too heavily on a single supplier, customer, or route - if it fails, the impact is severe.

• BRICS Trade Corridor: Shipping or rail routes linking Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa to promote intra-bloc trade.

😂 Meme of the Day

🧾 Final Word

It’s a good-looking scoreboard today - indices firm, currency steady, and some strong corporate moves. But trade and transport are the lifeblood of Mzansi’s economy, and right now, we’re getting squeezed at both ends.

Maersk’s pullout is a reminder that logistics isn’t just about moving boxes - it’s about market access, pricing power, and strategic leverage. Once you lose a direct lane, it’s far harder to get it back. The question is whether South Africa moves quickly to rewire its trade corridors, or waits for politics to play out.

This isn’t panic territory yet, but the winds have shifted.

Stay sharp.

—

Mzansi Market Memo is compiled daily by Rayhaan @ the Memo for investors and operators who trade before the sun rises. *This memo is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Still, we’d buy low and read high.

Join the movement → Subscribe or share