🇿🇦 Mzansi Market Memo – Monday, 21 July 2025

Molo, gents and gentleladies.
Time to get ready for the week ahead. ZAR strengthened against the USD, buybacks continue and the JSE is gently cruising up to the 100,000 mark with both Mid & Large Cap going up and over.

Over the weekend South Africa was abuzz with Mandela Day activities - a great reminder at how amazing we can be when we focus on uniting for good. Let’s hope the JSE can follow suit.

As a reminder, on Mondays we take a look at what to expect in the week ahead and the past weekend’s key announcements. Tomorrow you’ll receive your daily dose as usual.

Let’s get to the money.

📈 YTD Performance Snapshot

📊 Before the Bell – Market Pulse & Announcements

• USD/ZAR: 17.69; YTD -5.33% (ZAR strengthened)

• Upcoming: OASIS AGM today

📆 Week Ahead Brief

Stats SA Releases:

• Tuesday: – 22 July 2025

  • Land transport survey (May 2025); Tourist accommodation (May 2025); Food and beverages (May 2025)

• Wednesday – 23 July 2025

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI) (June 2025)

• Thursday – 24 July 2025

  • Export and import unit value indices (May 2025)

Earnings: 

• Tuesday – 22 July 2025

  • Vodacom – Annual General Meeting

  • Karoo – Quarterly Results

• Wednesday – 23 July 2025

  • AGMs: Ninety One Ltd (1L) & Plc (1); Afrimat

  • Kumba – Interim Results

• Thursday – 24 July 2025

  • PHP – Interim Results

  • PSG Financial Services – Annual General Meeting

• Friday – 25 July 2025

  • AGMS: Renergen; Karoo; Goldrush; Raubex; Fambrands

  • Interim results: Anglo American; British American Tobacco (BATS)

Global Watch:

• People’s Bank of China (PBoC) Rate Decision

  • 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates are due on Monday, July 21.

  • Rates are expected to be held steady at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively.

• Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes

  • Released on Tuesday, July 22.

  • Insight into the July policy pause and economic outlook

• European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy Decision

  • Scheduled for Thursday, July 24.

  • No rate change expected, but markets will watch closely for any signals about possible rate cuts in September.

📢 SENS Roundup – Friday, 18 July 2025

• 🛍️ Glencore (GLN)
  Announcement: Share Buyback
  Summary: Repurchased 900,000 shares on 17 July 2025, part of ongoing capital return strategy.
  TLDR: Another notch in Glencore’s buyback programme — shareholder-friendly move.

• 🔌 Remgro (REM)
  Announcement: Amendment to CIVH–Vodacom Fibre Deal
  Summary: New valuation puts Maziv’s equity at R36bn; call option for Vodacom capped at 34.95%. Competition Appeals Court to hear case on 22 July.
  TLDR: One of the biggest fibre infra deals in SA — now nearing final approval with adjusted terms.

• 🏢 4Sight Holdings (4SI)
  Announcement: Related Party Property Acquisition
  Summary: Buying office properties for R21.6m from CEO’s company; aims to save lease costs long-term.
  TLDR: Clean-up and consolidation move — fair governance disclosures provided.

• 📊 Bytes Technology (BYI)
  Announcement: Coronation Fund Managers crosses 13% holding threshold
  Summary: Up from 12.1% to 13.04% in voting rights.
  TLDR: Local institutional vote of confidence in UK-listed tech stock.

• 🏭 Quantum Foods (QFH)
  Announcement: Shareholder Agreement Disclosure
  Summary: Country Bird Holdings and Braemar grant each other rights of first refusal, potentially raising stake to 47.54%.
  TLDR: Watch for control shifts — no takeover planned yet, but parties are circling.

• 🛍️ British American Tobacco (BTI)
  Announcement: Buyback Programme Update
  Summary: Purchased 162,833 shares on 17 July under authorised buyback.
  TLDR: Standard buyback activity — consistent with capital return strategy.

• 🏢 Investec Limited (INL)
  Announcement: Share Incentive Transactions
  Summary: Investec plan acquired 300,000 shares over three days at ~R131/share to meet participant obligations.
  TLDR: Normal incentive-related market dealings.

🧠 Exec Picks

🇿🇦 “Not a failed state,” say market insiders
Despite the headlines, top analysts argue South Africa’s institutions are holding — pointing to functioning courts, a liquid banking system, and active civil society. But they warn that service delivery failures and Eskom remain major drags on economic potential.
TLDR: SA isn’t collapsing — but confidence needs reform, not just resilience.
👉 Read more – IOL

🎯 $100m ‘moonshot’ for the Prosus CEO
Fabricio Bloisi is chasing one of the largest executive bonuses in JSE history — a $100m payday if he doubles Prosus’ market cap and outperforms global tech peers by 2029. That means creating more value than giants like Airbnb, Shopify, and PayPal… combined.
TLDR: Prosus bets big on Bloisi. If he pulls it off, he becomes SA’s $100m man.
👉 Read more – Moneyweb

🏦 R10bn later, is the Land Bank finally turning a corner?
After years of bailouts and missteps, the Land Bank posted a small profit and resumed lending. But it’s still missing disbursement targets and has a sky-high non-performing loan book.
TLDR: A rare win for a state-owned lender, but the road ahead remains bumpy.
👉 Read more – Daily Investor

💸 Rand forecast: Stable… for now
Standard Bank’s Goolam Ballim sees the rand ending 2025 at R18.06/$, with local instability offset by a weaker dollar. The catch? It’s still not at “fair value,” and global trade tensions are building.
TLDR: The rand’s strength is more about a weak dollar than a strong SA. Tread carefully.
👉 Read more – Daily Investor

🔌 Copper shock: US tariffs jolt global markets
Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on copper imports has triggered a record price surge — with major traders like Glencore and Trafigura cashing in. Analysts say this could be the start of a long bull run.
TLDR: Copper is the new chaos metal — watch it as a global bellwether.
👉 Read more – Currency News

😂 Monday Meme of the Day

🧠 Final Word

Markets are positive and the JSE is looking to continue its run. The question bugging me is still, how long are we going to continue before we get a reality check? I’m less confident about the fundamentals that the company buybacks indicate and I am taking some caution in this market. Good luck for the week ahead and see you tomorrow for the daily dose.

Mzansi Market Memo is compiled daily by Rayhaan @ the Memo for investors and operators who trade before the sun rises.

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This memo is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Still, we’d buy low and read high.