🇿🇦 Mzansi Market Memo – Monday, 28 July 2025

Molo molo,

The JSE All Share ended the week down, erasing all gains and some after hitting 100,000. Large and Mid caps managed to steady themselves above the mark while small caps struggled. ZAR continues an end of week weakening on US news.

Coming up this week, several earnings and AGMS, US interest rate announcements and a breakdown in agreements over confidentiality.

As a reminder, on Mondays we take a look at what to expect in the week ahead and the past weekend’s key announcements. Tomorrow you’ll receive your daily dose as usual.

Let’s get to the money.

📈 YTD Performance Snapshot

📆 Week Ahead Brief

Stats SA Releases:

• Monday – 28 July 2025

  • Mid-year population estimates (2025)

• Tuesday – 29 July 2025

  • International Tourism (June 2025)

• Wednesday – 30 July 2025

  • Statistics of Liquidations (June 2025)

• Thursday – 31 July 2025

  • Producer Price Index (PPI) (June 2025); Construction Materials Price Indices (June 2025)

Earnings: 

• Monday – 28 July 2025

  • AGMs: Santova

  • Results: Valterra (Interim)

• Tuesday – 29 July 2025

  • AGMs: Adcorp; Zeder; Boxer

  • Results: Primeserv (Final); Kumba (Interim); SHBCAP (Interim)

• Wednesday – 30 July 2025

  • AGMs: Vunani

  • Results: Glencore (Interim)

• Thursday – 31 July 2025

  • AGMs: Trustco; Altron; Datatec; Dis-Chem

  • Results: Sebata (Final); Tongaat (Final); AECI (Interim); ArcelorMittal (Interim); Efora (Final)

• Friday – 1 August 2025

  • AGMs: Stefanutti Stocks

  • Results: AB InBev (Interim)

Global Watch:

• Federal Reserve (U.S.)

  • Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday, July 30, where the federal funds rate is expected to be held steady between 4.25% and 4.5%.

• Economic Data Releases Worldwide

  • Initial reading on Q2 GDP for the U.S. expected Tuesday, July 29, likely stronger than Q1 largely due to imports reversal.

  • European data include ECB consumer inflation expectations and various auctions in France and Spain.

  • Asian data include industrial production and manufacturing PMIs from Japan, India, Singapore, and South Korea.

📣 SENS Roundup – Friday, 25 July 2025

• Hyprop Investments – Termination of MAS Voluntary Bid
  Hyprop has withdrawn its conditional bid to acquire a controlling interest in MAS P.L.C. The deal fell apart due to MAS’s legal inability to share copies of key DJV agreements, which Hyprop had listed as a condition precedent.

  • MAS P.L.C. – Response to Hyprop Bid Termination
    MAS confirmed it engaged Hyprop in good faith but was legally restricted from disclosing certain documents. It maintains the DJV agreements are not price-sensitive and will continue exploring strategic options.

• Merafe Resources – Production Update & Trading Statement
  Ferrochrome production dropped 28%. HEPS expected to decline by 45–78%, driven by weaker pricing and lower sales volumes.
  TLDR: Earnings under pressure — soft demand and pricing hit margins.

• AVI Limited – Trading Statement
  FY24 HEPS expected to increase 5–7%. Good performance in beverages and fishing helped offset weak consumer demand and inflationary pressure.
  TLDR: Steady results with clear cost control — decent performance in a tough retail environment.

• Sibanye-Stillwater – PIC Raises Stake Above 20%
  The Public Investment Corporation has increased its stake to over 20%, indicating continued institutional confidence.

🧠 Exec Picks

🇺🇸 SA Signs US Trade Framework—But Tariffs Still Loom
South Africa has signed a framework agreement with the United States in an effort to avert potential sanctions and preserve AGOA benefits. While the move signals intent to cooperate, it doesn’t fully neutralise the threat of increased tariffs under proposed US legislation. Analysts warn the cost of a US fallout could weigh heavily on exports and foreign investment.
🔗 IOL

🏢 Property Pain if US Tensions Escalate
A new research note explores how trade strain with the US could ripple into South Africa’s commercial real estate sector. The note projects that a 15–30% drop in foreign investment could shrink development pipelines, delay infrastructure upgrades, and hike up borrowing costs in an already fragile market.
🔗 IOL

🌍 “Invest in Africa” Isn’t Just a Slogan—It’s a Thesis
A fresh take argues that African investors must lead the charge in funding African growth. With currency volatility and risk premiums making global capital skittish, the real silver bullet may be homegrown capital focused on local value creation—especially in sectors like fintech, infrastructure, and renewables.
🔗 Currency News

😂 Monday Meme of the Day

🧠 Final Word

Markets are shaky and hesitant. What’s new? US policy sanctions on ANC leaders probably won’t go into effect but I’m still worried about tariff impacts showing up in the final five months of the year. Don’t let the noise hide the real numbers. Good luck for the week ahead.

Mzansi Market Memo is compiled daily by Rayhaan @ the Memo for investors and operators who trade before the sun rises.

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This memo is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Still, we’d buy low and read high.