🇿🇦 Mzansi Market Memo — Thursday, 31 July 2025

Molweni abantu,

Mzansi’s market clock is ticking faster than usual today. The JSE is inching back toward 100,000, helped along by a relatively upbeat session yesterday. But underneath the calm, you can feel the tension: commodity giants like Glencore and Tharisa are reporting weaker output, liquidations are quietly ticking higher, and our citrus exporters are begging for presidential intervention to avoid a tariff nightmare in the US.

At the same time, big names like the Oppenheimers are quietly stepping away, while Wall Street is being warned that it may be seriously mispricing South Africa’s unfolding risks.

Let’s get to the money.

⚡ Before the Bell

• 🌍 Global & Local Market Recap

  • JSE All Share Index: up 0.15% at 99,315

  • USD/ZAR Exchange Rate: R17.97 +0.47%

• Stats SA today: Producer Price Index (PPI) (June 2025); Construction Materials Price Indices (June 2025)

• Earnings today: 

  • AGMs: Trustco; Altron; Datatec; Dis-Chem

  • Results: Sebata (Final); Tongaat (Final); AECI (Interim); ArcelorMittal (Interim); Efora (Final)

📣 SENS Roundup

1. Glencore: Output lower across key commodities
   Glencore’s H1 2025 production report revealed year-on-year volume declines across copper (-5%), cobalt (-6%), zinc (-11%), and nickel (-6%), while coal was flat. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance despite operational challenges and geopolitical disruptions.

2. Tharisa: Platinum output softens, chrome surges
   Q3 production showed lower PGM volumes due to ore mix and plant performance, but chrome concentrate output increased by 5.1% quarter-on-quarter. FY guidance remains unchanged.

3. Shaftesbury Capital: Exchangeable bond update following dividend
   Following its recent interim dividend declaration, Shaftesbury Capital announced that its GBP 275 million 2.00% Exchangeable Bonds due 2026 will see adjustments to the exchange property effective 1 October 2025. Bondholders will receive a further notice on the detailed changes.

4. Assura plc: Bank of America reduces exposure
   Bank of America disclosed a reduction in its aggregate financial instrument exposure to Assura plc from 3.4% to 1.4% of total voting rights. The change includes physical and cash-settled swap positions across various maturities.

📉 StatsSA: Liquidations Tick Higher in June

The number of company and close corporation liquidations increased by 7.4% year-on-year in June 2025, rising to 130 cases from 121 in June 2024.

• Quarterly growth: Liquidations rose 1.6% in Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024.

• Year-to-date: The first half of 2025 is still slightly behind 2024, down 0.8%.

By industry:

• The biggest contributor to liquidations remained finance, insurance, real estate, and business services, which accounted for 40 cases in June.

• Trade, catering, and accommodation followed closely with 30 cases.

• Construction saw 6 liquidations, while manufacturing reported 6 as well.

Voluntary vs compulsory:

• Voluntary liquidations made up the bulk of the cases (117 out of 130).

• Compulsory liquidations dropped slightly to just 13.

📊 TLDR: While overall liquidations are stable compared to previous years, the rising numbers in key sectors point to ongoing stress in consumer-facing and services sectors—despite signs of broader economic recovery in tourism and select export markets.

Read more: StatsSA

🧠 Exec Picks - tariffs and tariffs

1. Citrus growers appeal to Ramaphosa over looming US tariffs
   South Africa’s citrus industry is facing a major crisis as the US considers imposing 30% tariffs on citrus exports. The Citrus Growers’ Association has called on President Ramaphosa to intervene diplomatically to protect the R10 billion industry, which supports over 140,000 jobs. The tariffs are linked to political tensions and AGOA uncertainty, with citrus being one of South Africa’s top agricultural exports to the US.
   TLDR: Trade diplomacy just became a survival issue for SA citrus exporters—US tariffs could squeeze one of our juiciest industries.
   Read more: IOL

2. Oppenheimer family foundation shuts down SA operations
   The Brenthurst Foundation, established by the Oppenheimer family, is closing its South African office. No official reason was given, but sources suggest the move is partly due to concerns over South Africa’s declining institutional effectiveness.
   TLDR: A symbolic retreat from SA’s policy space
   Read more: Daily Investor

3. Standard Bank doubles down on Africa amid global rebalancing
   At the Africa Unlocked conference, Standard Bank reaffirmed its commitment to the continent, positioning itself as the go-to partner for regional expansion. CEO Bill Blackie highlighted the bank’s strategy to support clients in navigating intra-African trade, the AfCFTA, and global partnerships.

   TLDR: The bank is focusing on scalable infrastructure and cross-border capital flows to unlock long-term investment.
   Read more: Moneyweb

4. Wall Street underestimates South Africa’s unraveling
   A Wall Street Journal op-ed warns that financial markets are ignoring the geopolitical risk brewing in South Africa. Despite deteriorating infrastructure, high youth unemployment, and growing isolation from Western powers, SA’s asset prices remain relatively stable. The article cautions that sanctions, AGOA fallout, and reputational damage could trigger sudden market re-pricing.
   TLDR: International markets may be asleep at the wheel—SA's mounting risks could soon wake them up.
   Read more: Wall Street Journal

🧾 Glossary: Market Moves Explained

When the jargon hits harder than a load shedding schedule, we’ve got you. Here’s your quick decode of today’s financial buzzwords.

• Exchangeable Bond – A type of bond that allows the holder to exchange it for shares of a company (often a parent or affiliate), rather than the issuing company. In Shaftesbury’s case, the exchange terms are adjusted when dividends are declared.

• Cash-Settled Swap – A derivative contract where the difference in the value of an asset is exchanged in cash at maturity, without physical delivery. These instruments are commonly used by institutions like Bank of America to manage exposure.

• PGMs (Platinum Group Metals) – A group of six precious metals, including platinum, palladium, and rhodium, often mined together. PGMs are key to automotive catalysts and jewellery, and their production figures are watched closely in the mining sector.

• Structural Reform Lag – A term used by institutions like the IMF to describe economies that are slow to implement long-term policy and regulatory changes. In South Africa’s case, it refers to issues like SOE inefficiency, power supply, and investment climate.

😂 Meme of the Day

🧾 Final Word

Today feels like a contradiction — markets are up, but the sentiment on the ground is jittery. We're seeing diplomatic red flags, supply-side strain, and creeping business retreats from South Africa. For every upbeat AGM or dividend headline, there’s a tariff warning, a production miss, or a quiet exit.

So as we head into the close, remember: green screens don’t always mean green lights. The real indicators? Trust, trade, and traction.

Stay sharp, stay early, and as always — trade smart.

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Mzansi Market Memo is compiled daily by Rayhaan @ the Memo for investors and operators who trade before the sun rises. *This memo is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Still, we’d buy low and read high.

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