🇿🇦 Mzansi Market Memo — Thursday, 7 August 2025

Molweni abantu,

Mzansi’s looking fresh this morning. The JSE All Share closed above 100,000 amidst strong earnings and a more optimistic outlook for our core giants in mining. ZAR followed suit with a jump, strengthening by 1.11% (maybe a bad omen).

JSE earnings reflecting on the economy might have outweighed Trump’s tariffs deadline, while his domestic issues are piling up. Good news for SA.

Let’s get to the money.

⚡ Before the Bell

• 🌍 Global & Local Market Recap

  • JSE All Share Index: up 0.48% at 100,153

  • USD/ZAR Exchange Rate: R17.76 -1.11%

• Stats SA today: 

  • Manufacturing: Utilisation of production capacity by large enterprises, May 2025

  • Electricity generated and available for distribution, June 2025

• Earnings today: 

  • AGMs: Investec Ltd; Investec Plc; Brait

  • Results: JSE (Interim); Efora (Final); Sappi (Quarterly); Quilter (Interim)

📣 SENS Roundup

1. Glencore (GLN):
   Glencore reported H1 2025 results with adjusted EBITDA down 14% to $5.4bn, largely due to softer coal prices and lower copper output. However, it announced a new $1bn buyback programme and expects a rebound in copper production in H2. The Viterra sale added $900m in cash and NYSE-listed Bunge shares valued at $2.6bn, bolstering Glencore’s balance sheet and driving shareholder returns up to $3.2bn for the year.

2. Quilter (QLT):
   Quilter delivered a solid first-half performance with adjusted profit up 3% to £100m and an interim dividend of 2.0p, up 18% YoY. Net inflows rose sharply to £4.5bn (8% of opening AuMA), driven by strong performance in both the Affluent and High Net Worth segments. AuMA grew 6% to £126.3bn, reflecting increased platform usage and positive markets.

3. Jubilee Metals Group (JBL):
   Jubilee provided an extensive update on its Zambian copper operations, highlighting a shift to self-owned feedstock and vertical integration. The upgraded Roan concentrator reached 384t of copper in July, and drilling at Munkoyo shows potential for a consolidated pit design. Jubilee is also finalising the sale of its South African Chrome and PGM assets, with a shareholder circular due next week.

4. Assura Plc (AHR):
   JP Morgan Chase & Co increased its holding in Assura to 5.22%, breaching the disclosure threshold. The filing includes both direct equity holdings and exposure via equity swaps. This may signal increased institutional confidence in the healthcare REIT.

🧠 Exec Picks

1. Trump Tariffs Could Crash SA’s Car Exports
   The local auto industry is staring down the barrel of a 30% US tariff that could wipe out up to 30,000 jobs. In 2024 alone, SA exported R28.7bn worth of vehicles and components to the US, making it our third-largest market. With Mercedes already suspending C-Class production and BMW's X3 under pressure, the knock-on effect could be devastating for Eastern Cape manufacturing hubs.
   📉 TLDR: The value chain is in the firing line — and the ripple could flatten more than just exports.
   Read more: Business Report

2. Eskom’s Comeback, But at What Cost?
   Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF) is now flirting with 70%, up from lows of 48% last year. Load-shedding has eased, and a mid-year profit is on the cards. But behind the good news is a 1,000% tariff hike over two decades, and economic growth is still capped by generation constraints.
   📊 TLDR: Load-shedding is down, but affordability and long-term capacity remain live wires.
   Read more: Daily Investor

3. Maersk Exit Slashes SA–US Trade Link
   Global shipping giant Maersk will cut its only direct line from SA to the US in October, forcing exporters to reroute via Europe — and pay more. With Trump’s tariffs already straining margins, logistics delays could be the final straw for some exporters.
   📦 TLDR: One less ship route, one more reason to rethink trade corridors.
   Read more: Business Report

4. Mzansi’s Resilience Is Real, But Fragile
   The BETI index ticked up for a third straight month, defying the odds. Consumer spending, inflation control, and solid vehicle sales are keeping the economy on its feet — for now. But risks from US tariffs and low growth forecasts (sub-1%) loom large.
   📈 TLDR: SA Inc. is standing tall, but the ground is shifting beneath it.
   Read more: Business Tech

🧾 Glossary: Market Moves Explained

When the jargon hits harder than a load shedding schedule, we’ve got you. Here’s your quick decode of today’s financial buzzwords.

• EAF (Energy Availability Factor): A measure of how much of Eskom’s generation fleet is available to supply electricity. Closer to 70% is good news.

• AuMA (Assets under Management & Administration): A metric used by wealth managers like Quilter to show how much investor money they oversee.

• Vertical Integration: When a company (like Jubilee Metals) controls more of its supply chain - from raw materials to processing.

• BETI (BankservAfrica Economic Transaction Index): A real-time tracker of economic activity based on transactions — a pulse check on spending in SA.

😂 Meme of the Day

🧾 Final Word

Mzansi is on the up — on paper. The JSE cracked 100k, the rand is doing a victory lap, and earnings season is mostly green. But geopolitics doesn’t care about your charts.

With Trump tariffs and Maersk exits in play, the SA export machine is facing its biggest stress test in years. The resilience is real, but it’s starting to feel fragile. Keep your stops tight, your eyes on trade flows, and your heart rate low.

Stay sharp. Tomorrow’s memo might have a different tone.

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Mzansi Market Memo is compiled daily by Rayhaan @ the Memo for investors and operators who trade before the sun rises. *This memo is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Still, we’d buy low and read high.

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