🇿🇦 Mzansi Market Memo — Tuesday, 15 July 2025

Moloweni gents and gentleladies.

Welcome to your Tuesday market fix. The JSE was a bit like a Joburg taxi in rush hour yesterday: some stops, a few sharp turns, but still moving forward. Let’s break down what’s driving the markets and what to watch as you trade smart and stay sharp this week.

Let’s get to the money.

⚡ Before the Bell

• 🌍 Global & Local Market Recap

  • China's economy grew 5.4% year-over-year in Q1, beating market estimates

  • JSE All Share Index: Closed down 0.43% from the previous session.

  • Market Sentiment: Political tensions remain as President Ramaphosa’s unity dialogue continues without the DA, and concerns over coalition stability persist.

  • USD/ZAR Exchange Rate: The rand traded at R17.91 to the dollar at Monday’s close, wobbling as global tariff uncertainties linger

• Stats SA: Mining: Production & Sales (May 2025) today

• Earnings / Macros: Quiet until tomorrow

📣 SENS Roundup

1. African Dawn Capital & Efora Energy
   🛑 Suspension of listing — The JSE has suspended both entities due to regulatory compliance failures.
   TLDR: This suggests deeper operational or financial distress, and investors should treat these stocks with caution.

2. ABSA Group (ABG)
   🌀 Committee reshuffles announced.
   TLDR: While common, such changes often signal subtle shifts in governance priorities or strategy.

3. Tharisa PLC (THA)
   📉 Share buyback announcement.
   TLDR: Likely a strategic move to bolster shareholder value or signal confidence in undervaluation.

4. Mantengu Mining (MTU)
   🚧 Proposed name change and restructuring.
   TLDR: Part of a broader repositioning strategy — speculative but worth watching.

5. ArcelorMittal SA (ACL)
   🏗️ Update on longs business, trading statement, and investor call notice.
   TLDR: The steel giant is trying to calm nerves amid a tough trading environment.

6. Orion Minerals (ORN)
   💵 Share issue under Section 708A(5)(e).
   TLDR: Capital raise or regulatory compliance — common for small caps.

7. Other Market Updates

   Debt: These represent routine bond and note activity — useful for fixed income desks but not market-moving
   Goldman Sachs (GS081C); FirstRand Bank (FRB33); Toyota Financial Services; Thekwini Warehousing; Super Group; New Development Bank; Standard Bank
   Equity: Vunani director transaction for R30k; Orion Minerals (ORN) share issue;

🧠 Exec Picks - tariffs and tariffs

1. ArcelorMittal SA warns Longs division may still shut down
🔧 The steelmaker’s long-products business remains under threat despite earlier lifelines, with board-level decisions expected in Q3 2025.
TLDR: Potential closure impacts jobs, steel prices, and investor confidence in SA’s industrial backbone.
Read more: IOL

2. SA leaking R100 million a day from illicit cigarettes
🚬 SARS is losing R27 billion a year to illegal tobacco sales — despite deploying surveillance, audits, and raids.
TLDR: That’s half of Eskom’s annual debt servicing bill going up in smoke. Critical for fiscal repair.
Read more: BusinessTech

3. Sanlam Credit Confidence: Millennials are drowning
📉 Half of Millennials are high-risk credit users, and 165,000 spend more than 50% of income on debt, per Sanlam's data.
TLDR: A generational credit crisis is brewing — insurers are responding with financial coaching, not just coverage.
Read more: Personal Finance

4. Pityana vs Absa & SARB: Legal saga heats up
⚖️ Both institutions are appealing a court ruling that found the Prudential Authority acted unlawfully in blocking his appointment.
TLDR: Governance in SA’s banking sector under legal spotlight — transparency and credibility at stake.
Read more: Business Report

🧾 Glossary: Market Moves Explained

When the jargon hits harder than a load shedding schedule, we’ve got you. Here’s your quick decode of today’s financial buzzwords.

• SENS – Stock Exchange News Service. Official JSE platform for company announcements. Here’s one I should have probably done in the first edition!

• Section 708A(5)(e) – An Australian regulatory disclosure for small-cap share issues, common for dual-listed JSE miners.

• Illicit trade – Unlawful commerce such as untaxed cigarette sales, which affects state revenue and distorts markets.

😂 Meme of the Day

🧾 Final Word

Between steel closures, cigarette leaks, and collapsing credit confidence, South Africa’s financial plumbing is under pressure. But markets are still functioning — a testament to their resilience, not their comfort. The smart money is moving with caution, watching how global tariffs and local politics dance. As always, stay early, stay sharp.

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Mzansi Market Memo is compiled daily by Rayhaan @ the Memo for investors and operators who trade before the sun rises. *This memo is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Still, we’d buy low and read high.

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