🇿🇦 Mzansi Market Memo — Tuesday, 29 July 2025

Molweni gents and gentleladies.

The JSE edged down again, closing 0.22% lower as the All Share struggles to hold the line under 100,000. The rand followed suit, slipping back to R17.89 against the dollar — another reminder that global winds can change direction faster than a Cape Town cold front.

Meanwhile, Stats SA gave us a fresh look at the country’s demographic shifts: we’re 63.1 million strong, with Gauteng and the Western Cape pulling the most people in. That youthful population base? It’s either a ticking time bomb or the engine for a rebound — depending on what we do next.

Copper’s spiking, Eskom’s losing court battles, and FlySafair’s feeling the labour pinch. And in all of this, the biggest untapped growth lever may be sitting right under our noses: the rule of law.

Let’s get to the money.

⚡ Before the Bell

• 🌍 Global & Local Market Recap

  • JSE All Share Index: Down 0.22%

  • USD/ZAR Exchange Rate: R17.89 - quickly evaporating gains

• Stats SA today: International Tourism (June 2025)

• Earnings today: AGMs: Adcorp; Zeder; Boxer. Results: Primeserv (Final); Kumba (Interim); SHBCAP (Interim)

📣 SENS Roundup + StatsSA

1. Vukile gets ratings boost, prepares bond auction
   Vukile Property Fund has been upgraded to AA+(za) by GCR Ratings, reflecting strong asset quality and liquidity. The company also kicks off a debt roadshow ahead of a bond auction set for 22 August.

2. Mostly routine announcements yesterday

3. Stats SA: Mid-Year Population Estimates (2025)

   Pop est. 63.1 million. Life expectancy 66.9 years

   Migration trends show Gauteng (+1.4 million) and Western Cape (+500k) gaining the most residents through internal migration between 2021–2026.

   Provincial population share:

   • Gauteng: 25.5% (~16.1 million)

   • KwaZulu-Natal: 19.4% (~12.2 million)

   • Northern Cape: Smallest population (~1.38 million, 2.2%)

   Youth & ageing snapshot:

   • Under 15 years: 26.2% of population (~16.5 million)

   • Aged 60+: 10.5% (~6.6 million)

🧠 Exec Picks - tariffs and tariffs

1. Copper Market Goes Volatile After Trump’s Tariff Threats
   Copper has become the latest battleground in the U.S. trade wars. After former President Trump floated a 50% tariff on copper imports, global prices surged 13%—a historic single-day jump. The market’s extreme reaction contrasts with the muted response from equity markets, underscoring copper's role as both an industrial bellwether and a geopolitical chess piece.
   Read more: Currency News

2. FlySafair Faces Talent Drain Amid Strike Pressure
   Labour union Solidarity has warned FlySafair’s CEO to resolve the ongoing pilot strike or risk a brain drain of skilled workers to global airlines. With no formal negotiations underway, the standoff could impact the airline’s expansion strategy and credibility as South Africa’s most punctual carrier.
   Read more: IOL

3. Court Orders Eskom to Pay R1bn to Framatome
   The Gauteng High Court has upheld an international arbitration ruling ordering Eskom to pay R1 billion to Framatome, a French nuclear contractor, over a cancelled Koeberg contract. The court dismissed Eskom’s appeal, tightening pressure on the utility’s already fragile balance sheet.
   Read more: IOL

4. South Africa’s Economic 'Silver Bullet' is Rule of Law
   According to Standard Bank’s chief economist, 70% of long-term economic growth hinges on good governance and the rule of law. His comments highlight a deeper issue: South Africa’s economic potential is being throttled from within. Investors are ready, but stability and consistency in governance remain prerequisites.
   Read more: Daily Investor

🧾 Glossary: Market Moves Explained

When the jargon hits harder than a load shedding schedule, we’ve got you. Here’s your quick decode of today’s financial buzzwords.

• Bond auction – A process by which a government or corporation raises funds by issuing debt instruments (bonds) to investors, typically through a bidding system. Vukile’s auction aims to tap into fixed-income markets for funding.

• Credit rating (AA+) – A financial score assigned by rating agencies like GCR to indicate the creditworthiness of an issuer. AA+ suggests very low credit risk, just below the highest rating tiers.

• Industrial bellwether – A commodity or sector that signals the broader state of industrial activity or economic health. Copper is considered one, as it is used widely in construction, manufacturing, and electronics.

• Arbitration ruling – A legally binding decision made by a neutral third party (often international) to resolve a contractual dispute. Eskom’s loss to Framatome is one such case with significant financial implications.

• Rule of law (economic context) – The consistent application of laws and enforcement mechanisms critical for economic predictability, investor confidence, and long-term growth. Viewed as a key lever in unlocking South Africa’s full economic potential.

😂 Meme of the Day

🧾 Final Word

A country’s population is often its greatest asset — but only if its policies match its people’s potential. Between a rising youth base, surging copper prices, and courts forcing Eskom to settle billion-rand debts, South Africa’s crossroads aren’t just economic — they’re systemic.

Growth doesn’t come from slogans. It comes from confidence, credibility, and the courage to fix what’s broken.

Stay sharp.

—

Mzansi Market Memo is compiled daily by Rayhaan @ the Memo for investors and operators who trade before the sun rises. *This memo is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Still, we’d buy low and read high.

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