🇿🇦 Mzansi Market Memo — Wednesday, 13 August 2025

Good morning,

The JSE added 0.64% to close at 101,271 yesterday, while the rand firmed to R17.55/$. On the economic front, Stats SA reported mining production up 2.4% y/y in June - thanks to PGMs, coal, and chromium - but gold sales plunged more than 50%. Jobs data shows a mixed bag: overall employment is up year-on-year, but youth joblessness and regional swings remain stubborn.

Corporate headlines were heavy with strategic plays: Jubilee Metals is plotting a R16bn chrome & PGM exit to bet fully on Zambian copper, Sasol is swinging from a loss to a potential R12 EPS, and Sirius Real Estate just bulked up its UK portfolio by 20%. And in a rare boost for fixed investment, a R3.2bn private university is breaking ground east of Pretoria.

Tomorrow and Friday the Memo will be taking a short break. Stay informed and see you on the other side.

Let’s get to the money.

Before the Bell

• Global & Local Market Recap

  • JSE All Share Index: up 0.64% at 101,271

  • USD/ZAR Exchange Rate: R17.55

• Stats SA today: Retail trade sales (June 2025)

• Earnings today: 

  • AGMs: Trustco; Equites

📣 SENS Roundup + StatsSA

• Sirius Real Estate (SRE)
  Sirius has completed the £101.1 million acquisition of the Hartlebury Trading Estate in Worcestershire, UK, adding 1.5 million sq ft across 171 acres to its BizSpace portfolio. The deal expands Sirius’ UK gross asset value by ~20% and boosts revenues by 10%.

• SBN Holdings (SNO)
  Namibia’s SBN Holdings posted H1 2025 profit after tax of N$556.2 million, up from N$505.3 million in H1 2024, with HEPS rising to 106c. Net interest income grew 2.9%, driven by an 8.8% increase in gross loans, while non-interest revenue rose 3.6% on higher transaction volumes. Credit impairments fell 21.8%, improving the NPL ratio to 3.7%. An interim dividend of N$334.4 million was declared.

• Merafe Resources (MRF)
  Merafe’s H1 2025 results reflected tough ferrochrome market conditions, with EBITDA down 56% to R500 million and HEPS falling 55% to 12.6c. Ferrochrome production dropped 27% and sales volumes fell 55%. An interim dividend of 4c per share was declared (2024: 20c) as the group focuses on cost control and stakeholder engagement in the Glencore-Merafe Chrome Venture.

• Sasol (SOL)
  Issued a trading statement for FY 2025, guiding EPS of R7.00–R12.00 (vs FY 2024 loss of R69.94) and HEPS of R33.60–R36.30 (+85–100% YoY). Gains were driven by higher chemicals prices, cost discipline, and fewer impairments, partly offset by lower oil prices and volumes. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to fall 10–17% YoY to R50–R54 billion.

• Weaver Fintech (WVR)
  Reported strong H1 2025 growth with profit before tax up 48% to R370 million, driven mainly by its fintech segment, which now contributes 98% of group profits. EPS rose 45% to 285.5c, and an interim dividend of 140c per share was declared. The customer base grew to 3.7 million, with fintech products offered to 3,100 merchants and 3.3 million customers.

Mining: Production & Sales (June 2025)

• Production

  • Up 2.4% y/y in June, driven by:

    • PGMs (+3.0%, +1.0pp)

    • Coal (+3.7%, +0.8pp)

    • Chromium ore (+9.0%, +0.5pp)

  • Q2 2025 vs Q1 2025: Production rose 3.9% (PGMs, gold, chromium were top contributors).

• Sales

  • Down 14.4% y/y in June, led by:

    • Gold (-53.7%, -13.6pp)

    • Manganese ore (-33.7%, -2.7pp)

    • Coal (-5.5%, -1.2pp)

  • PGMs were the only significant positive contributor (+23.5%, +4.4pp).

  • Q2 2025 vs Q1 2025: Sales up 6.6% seasonally adjusted.

• Read more: StatsSA

Quarterly Labour Force Survey (Q2 2025)

• Labour Force & Employment

  • Working-age population: 41.8m (+0.3% q/q, +1.3% y/y).

  • Labour force: 25.17m (+0.6% q/q, +0.6% y/y).

  • Employed: 16.81m (+19k q/q, +154k y/y).

  • Gains: Formal sector (+34k), private households (+28k);
    Losses: Agriculture (-24k), informal sector (-19k).

• Unemployment

  • Official unemployment rate: 33.2% (+0.3pp q/q, -0.3pp y/y).

  • Expanded unemployment rate: 42.9% (-0.2pp q/q, +0.3pp y/y).

  • Increases in Northern Cape, Limpopo, Western Cape; decreases in Mpumalanga, Gauteng, North West.

• Provincial Job Changes

  • Biggest q/q gains: Gauteng (+95k), Eastern Cape (+89k).

  • Biggest q/q losses: Western Cape (-117k), KwaZulu-Natal (-86k).

• Youth NEET (Not in Employment, Education or Training)

  • Age 15–24: 35.2% NEET (down 0.1pp y/y).

  • Age 15–34: 43.9% NEET (down 0.2pp y/y).

• Read more: StatsSA

🧠 Exec Picks

R1.50 Petrol Price Relief for SA Motorists
South Africans are paying R1.50 less per litre than a year ago thanks to softer oil prices and a steady rand. Old Mutual’s Izak Odendaal says the drop boosts household spending power, offsets some of the US tariff shock, and could help GDP beat last year’s growth rates despite forecasts being cut to ~1%. With Brent crude down 19% y/y and the rand firming as investors shun US Treasuries, fuel imports are cheaper - a double win for inflation and wallets.
Read more: Daily Investor

Jubilee Metals’ R16bn Chrome & PGM Exit
Jubilee Metals plans to sell its South African chrome and platinum group metals operations to One Chrome for up to R15.8bn, pivoting fully into Zambia’s copper sector. The deal mirrors Anglo American’s resource reshuffle and is pitched as a move away from SA’s jurisdictional risk toward higher-growth copper demand in EVs and infrastructure. Proceeds could fund expansion, share buybacks, or dividends, with shareholders voting on 28 August.
Read more: Business Report

R3.2bn Private University Breaks Ground
Construction has started on the R3.2bn Akademia campus east of Pretoria, one of SA’s largest private-sector education investments in years. Built by the Solidarity Movement with Kanton, the campus will house 5,000 undergrads and 1,500 postgrads by 2028. It’s a rare bright spot for fixed investment, which has languished below 15% of GDP for five years. Facilities will include residences, sports grounds, and restaurants -signalling private capital’s role in plugging SA’s skills gap.
Read more: Daily Investor

🧾 Glossary: Market Moves Explained

When the jargon hits harder than a load shedding schedule, we’ve got you. Here’s your quick decode of today’s financial buzzwords.

• NEET (Not in Employment, Education or Training): A measure of how many young people are disengaged from both work and study — a key indicator of future labour force health.

• Jurisdictional Risk: The political, legal, and regulatory risks of operating in a particular country or region.

• Fixed Investment: Long-term spending on physical assets like buildings, machinery, and infrastructure — crucial for economic growth.

• Gross Asset Value (GAV): The total market value of all assets in a property or investment portfolio before deducting liabilities.

• Credit Impairments: Provisions set aside by banks for potential loan losses — falling impairments usually mean better loan performance.

😂 Meme of the Day

🧾 Final Word

It’s not often we get a triple shot of good news for wallets, balance sheets, and long-term capacity building. Cheaper petrol puts cash back in households, big-ticket corporate deals signal conviction in future demand, and a major private university project is betting on South Africa’s skills gap being worth closing.

But beneath the optimism, the labour market data reminds us that growth isn’t evenly spread — and without structural reform, youth joblessness will keep eating into the gains. Mining output is rising, yet sales are volatile, underlining how commodity cycles and logistics bottlenecks still dictate our fortunes.

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Mzansi Market Memo is compiled daily by Rayhaan @ the Memo for investors and operators who trade before the sun rises. *This memo is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Still, we’d buy low and read high.

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