🇿🇦 Mzansi Market Memo — Wednesday, 30 July 2025

Molweni,

Mzansi markets edged upward yesterday, but there’s tension brewing beneath the surface. The JSE is still wrestling with earnings season volatility and the rand has lost ground — again — as global sentiment shifts.

We’ve got a mixed bag today: Anglo and Kumba take hits on weaker prices, SHBCAP posts strong growth, and Stats SA says more tourists are pouring through our borders than at any time this year. Meanwhile, Bain & Co. packs its bags, and the IMF is trimming expectations.

Let’s get to the money.

⚡ Before the Bell

• 🌍 Global & Local Market Recap

  • JSE All Share Index: up 0.47% at 99,165

  • USD/ZAR Exchange Rate: R17.89

• Stats SA today: Statistics of Liquidations (June 2025)

• Earnings today: 

  • AGMs: Vunani

  • Results: Glencore (Interim)

📣 SENS Roundup

1. Anglo American: Revenue down, EBITDA squeezed
   Anglo reported a 7% decline in group revenue to $14.6 billion for the half-year ended 30 June 2025. EBITDA fell by 19% to $6.6 billion, reflecting weaker prices and operational challenges. The interim dividend was cut to $0.38 per share, down from $0.55 in the prior year.

2. Kumba Iron Ore: Earnings halve on lower prices
   Kumba’s interim results show headline earnings per share dropped by 52% to R22.23. This follows a 36% fall in average realised iron ore export prices and logistics constraints. The company declared an interim dividend of R22.60 per share, down from R30.50 in the same period last year.

3. SHBCAP: First half profits up 45%
   Shelter Bank Capital (SHBCAP) posted a 45% increase in headline earnings per share for the six months ended 30 June 2025. Growth was driven by a rise in net interest income and improved credit performance across its loan book.

4. KAP Limited: Trading update flags earnings drop
   KAP issued a trading statement indicating headline earnings per share for FY2025 will decrease by 15%–25% compared to FY2024. Weaker demand and input cost pressures in its industrial segment were cited as contributing factors.

5. Primeserv: Final results reflect 12% revenue growth
   Primeserv’s audited results for the year ended 31 March 2025 show revenue rose by 12% to R993 million. HEPS increased 9% to 17.75 cents. The group declared a final dividend of 4.25 cents per share.

6. Investec BATIII: Autocall triggered, R1,807 payout
   Investec confirmed the automatic early exercise of the BATIII autocall note linked to British American Tobacco. Investors will receive a R1,807 cash settlement per note, with payout scheduled for 4 August 2025.

StatsSA: Tourism Rebounds as Border Crossings Spike in June

South Africa saw a strong surge in tourism and cross-border movement in June 2025, continuing the upward trend from earlier in the year. Total traveller movements (both arrivals and departures) hit 3.2 million, marking a significant increase from 2.9 million in May.

Visitor Trends:

• Overseas visitors rose to 309,000, with most arriving from the UK, USA, Germany, and the Netherlands.

• Regional travel remained strong, with more than 1.3 million movements from the SADC region — primarily from Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Lesotho.

• Notably, the number of same-day visitors from SADC jumped 17.4%, reflecting both informal trade and short-term tourism activity.

Border Post Activity:

• The busiest land ports included Beitbridge, Lebombo, and Maseru Bridge, each facilitating over 150,000 traveller movements.

• OR Tambo International Airport handled over 500,000 passengers, maintaining its position as the primary international gateway.

Read more: StatsSA

🧠 Exec Picks - tariffs and tariffs

1. 1. Bain & Co exits South Africa after ‘treason’ claims
   Global consultancy Bain & Company has shut down its Johannesburg operations, ending years of damage control following its role in gutting SARS during the Zuma era. The National Treasury accused Bain of “treason,” and despite lawsuits and a public apology, the firm's reputation never recovered. Most staff will remain to support global operations, but Bain’s consulting work in SA is over.
   TLDR: Another chapter closes in South Africa’s state capture saga—but justice still feels out of reach.
   Read more: Daily Investor

2. Kumba lifts earnings but long-term investors still deep in the red
   Kumba Iron Ore's interim results were well received, with the stock jumping 6% on improved cost controls and dividends. However, over a five-year horizon, the share price is still down 43%, raising concerns about long-term value creation despite short-term execution.
   TLDR: A good bounce for now, but long-term holders need more than just iron discipline.
   Read more: IOL Business

3. IMF keeps SA growth forecast flat as neighbours surge
   The IMF maintained South Africa’s 2025 growth forecast at 1.0%, far behind the upward revisions for African peers like Nigeria, Ghana, and Kenya. The Fund cited load shedding, logistical constraints, and weak governance as persistent drags. Notably, the IMF’s outlook assumes structural reforms remain slow—especially in SOEs.
   TLDR: SA is falling behind even in its own neighbourhood. The message? Reform or be left behind.
   Read more: IOL Business

4. R800m oxygen plant contract under probe
   A controversial R800 million tender for an oxygen plant during COVID is under forensic review. The project was awarded without transparency, allegedly involving inflated pricing and political interference. DA MP Dean Macpherson is set to reveal PwC’s findings this week, with potential criminal charges on the table.
   TLDR: Another high-stakes corruption case is bubbling up—watch for heat around procurement reform.
   Read more: IOL Business

🧾 Glossary: Market Moves Explained

When the jargon hits harder than a load shedding schedule, we’ve got you. Here’s your quick decode of today’s financial buzzwords.

• Autocall note – A structured investment that automatically pays out early if certain conditions are met, such as a stock reaching a specific price. In this case, linked to British American Tobacco.

• EBITDA – Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation. A measure of a company’s operating profitability before non-cash and financial costs.

• HEPS (Headline Earnings Per Share) – A key metric in South African reporting that strips out exceptional and non-recurring items to reflect core profitability per share.

• Debt roadshow – A series of presentations to potential investors ahead of a bond or equity issuance, aimed at building interest and confidence.

• State capture – A form of corruption where private entities influence government decision-making to advance their own interests. Bain’s role in hollowing out SARS is a textbook case.

😂 Meme of the Day

🧾 Final Word

Tourists are coming, but foreign capital—not so much. As South Africa’s growth forecast stands still and yet another corruption case surfaces, the story remains familiar: great potential, stalled momentum. Investors want to believe — but trust, like dividends, has to be earned.

Until then, we trade in caution and lead with clarity.

—

Mzansi Market Memo is compiled daily by Rayhaan @ the Memo for investors and operators who trade before the sun rises. *This memo is for informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Still, we’d buy low and read high.

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